UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
Sat, 06 Jun 2026 · Meta APEX, Las Vegas · Paramount+
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim
Style clash: striker vs grappler — sprawl-and-brawl or get controlled?
Why Muhammad can win
- • Cage control
- • Adaptability
- • Fight IQ
Why Bonfim can win
- • Chain wrestling
- • Guard play
- • Top control
AI Confidence
74%
favors Bonfim
Volatility
MEDIUM
Public sentiment
30%
on Muhammad (permitted source)
ⓘProbabilistic research/entertainment tool based on historical statistics. MMA is high-variance — outcomes are uncertain. Not betting or financial advice. No guaranteed results. 21+ only.
Main Card
Belal Muhammad
24-5-0
+280
AI Conf.
74%
Gabriel Bonfim
19-1-0
-345
Vex AI: 26% Muhammad · Market (no-vig): 25%
No strong edge
Brendan Allen
26-7-0
-115
AI Conf.
53%
Edmen Shahbazyan
16-5-0
+105
Vex AI: 53% Allen · Market (no-vig): 52%
No strong edge
Farés Ziam
18-4-0
-125
AI Conf.
54%
Tom Nolan
10-1-0
+115
Vex AI: 54% Ziam · Market (no-vig): 54%
No strong edge
Bryce Mitchell
18-4-0
+115
AI Conf.
55%
Santiago Luna
8-0-0
-130
Vex AI: 45% Mitchell · Market (no-vig): 45%
No strong edge
Junior Tafa
7-5-0
+135
AI Conf.
59%
Iwo Baraniewski
8-0-0
-155
Vex AI: 41% Tafa · Market (no-vig): 41%
No strong edgePreliminary Card
Matt Schnell
17-10-0
+130
AI Conf.
57%
Alessandro Costa
15-5-0
-145
Vex AI: 43% Schnell · Market (no-vig): 42%
No strong edge
Marcus McGhee
10-2-0
-150
AI Conf.
58%
John Yannis
10-4-0
+135
Vex AI: 58% McGhee · Market (no-vig): 59%
No strong edge
Bruno Silva
15-8-2
+175
AI Conf.
64%
Édgar Cháirez
13-6-0
-200
Vex AI: 36% Silva · Market (no-vig): 35%
No strong edge
Priscila Cachoeira
13-8-0
-100
AI Conf.
51%
Chelsea Chandler
6-4-0
-105
Vex AI: 49% Cachoeira · Market (no-vig): 49%
No strong edge
Joanderson Brito
18-5-1
-100
AI Conf.
51%
Jordan Leavitt
13-3-0
-110
Vex AI: 49% Brito · Market (no-vig): 49%
No strong edge
Yuneisy Duben
6-1-0
-150
AI Conf.
58%
Jeisla Chaves
7-0-0
+135
Vex AI: 58% Duben · Market (no-vig): 59%
No strong edge
Ariane Carnelossi
15-4-0
-145
AI Conf.
57%
Ketlen Souza
16-6-0
+130
Vex AI: 57% Carnelossi · Market (no-vig): 58%
No strong edgeEvent Intelligence
Vex AI leans Bonfim in the Muhammad vs. Bonfim main event
Vex AI favors Gabriel Bonfim at 75% over Muhammad across 5 rounds. Edge driven by cardio and pace. Lines are Vex AI–implied — shop for value.
Vex AI · Confidence: High
Bonfim layoff at 13 months — activity flag raised
Gabriel Bonfim hasn't competed in 13 months. Long layoffs correlate with slow starts and timing issues early; Vex AI applies a ring-rust penalty. Weigh it against form and finishing ability.
Vex AI + public record · Confidence: Medium
Allen vs Shahbazyan: styles make the co-main
Brendan Allen (26-7) meets Edmen Shahbazyan (16-5) in the Middleweight co-feature. Evenly matched on paper. Key swing: who dictates where it takes place.
Vex AI · Confidence: Low
Muhammad vs. Bonfim — weigh-ins ahead of Meta APEX
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim goes down Sat, 06 Jun 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas. Monitor official weigh-ins for any misses before lines settle.
Event schedule · Confidence: High
Market watch: prelim lines still thin
Books are slow to post deep-prelim numbers for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim. Vex AI–implied prices fill the gap until real lines arrive — treat early prelim value with caution.
Vex AI · Confidence: Low