Simulate the Matchup
Pick any two fighters and run a transparent, statistics-driven simulation — win probability with confidence ranges, method-of-victory distribution, round momentum, and the exact factors that moved the prediction.
Fighter A
Ariane Carnelossi
15-4-0 · Women's Strawweight
Fighter B
Ketlen Souza
16-6-0 · Women's Strawweight
Simulation runs on Vex AI’s model-estimated fighter metrics (ESPN publishes no granular MMA stats). Predictions are not official data and not betting advice.
Carnelossi win range 11% – 94% (90% confidence)
Ariane Carnelossi — method
13%
KO/TKO
11%
SUB
33%
DEC
Ketlen Souza — method
15%
KO/TKO
5%
SUB
24%
DEC
Round momentum (+ favors Carnelossi)
Skill profile
Top impact factors — what moved this prediction
- Form+3.6%
- Submission+1.7%
- Grappling+1.2%
- Cardio+1.0%
- Durability+0.8%
- Physical-0.6%
Contribution = category weight × (skill gap), mapped to win-probability points. Weights are published on the methodology page.
ⓘProbabilistic research/entertainment tool based on historical statistics. MMA is high-variance — outcomes are uncertain. Not betting or financial advice. No guaranteed results. 21+ only.
How Vex AI weights skills
The composite rating is a transparent weighted blend of nine category sub-scores. These priors are published and tuned over time against real results.
Full formulas, calibration approach and missing-data handling are on the methodology page.